FED TRACKER

Monetary Policy Dashboard

Current Federal Funds Rate: 3.50% - 3.75%

Recent FOMC Decisions

January 28-29, 2026
HELD at 3.50%-3.75%
2 dissents (Cook, Musalem) - voted for 25bp cut
December 9-10, 2025
CUT 25bp to 3.50%-3.75%
1 dissent (Bowman) - preferred to hold
October 28-29, 2025
CUT 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%
No dissents
September 16-17, 2025
CUT 50bp to 4.00%-4.25%
1 dissent (Bowman) - preferred 25bp cut
July 29-30, 2025
HELD at 4.50%-4.75%
No dissents
June 17-18, 2025
HELD at 4.50%-4.75%
No dissents
May 6-7, 2025
HELD at 4.50%-4.75%
No dissents
March 18-19, 2025
HELD at 4.50%-4.75%
No dissents

Upcoming FOMC Meetings

March 17-18, 2026*
*Summary of Economic Projections
April 28-29, 2026
June 16-17, 2026*
*Summary of Economic Projections
July 28-29, 2026

Market Predictions (March 2026)

CME FedWatch
No change: 77%
25bp cut: 23%
Polymarket
No change: 79%
25bp cut: 18%
50bp+ cut: 1%
Kalshi
No change: 36%
25bp cut: 64%

Latest Economic Data

Unemployment Rate (Dec 2025) 4.4%
Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec 2025) +50K
CPI (Dec 2025, YoY) 2.7%
Core CPI (Dec 2025, YoY) 2.6%
Initial Jobless Claims (Latest) 231K
10Y Treasury Yield 4.18%
2Y Treasury Yield 3.54%

FOMC Member Assessments

Jerome Powell (Chair)
NEUTRAL

Views policy as "loosely neutral" after 175bp of cuts. Emphasized "not on preset course" and will make decisions meeting-by-meeting.

Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision)
HAWKISH

Has dissented multiple times preferring to hold or cut less. Focused on fragility in labor market but confident inflation will move toward 2%.

Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair)
NEUTRAL

Cautiously optimistic. Views current policy rate as consistent with neutral rate that neither stimulates nor restricts activity.

Lisa Cook (Governor)
DOVISH

Dissented in January favoring a 25bp cut. Focus on economic outlook and dual mandate.

Christopher Waller (Governor)
HAWKISH

Previously made hawkish statements but has shifted more neutral/dovish in late 2025. Known for data-dependent approach.

John Williams (NY Fed President, Vice Chair)
NEUTRAL

Key centrist voice. Permanent FOMC voter. His speeches have historically moved markets significantly.

Austan Goolsbee (Chicago)
DOVISH

2026 voting member. Generally dovish, focuses on labor market risks.

Alberto Musalem (St. Louis)
DOVISH

2026 voting member. Dissented in January favoring a 25bp cut.

Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City)
NEUTRAL

2026 voting member. Newer member with balanced approach.

Susan Collins (Boston)
NEUTRAL

2026 voting member. Data-dependent, balanced perspective.

US Treasury Yield Curve